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Nigerian Strategy Report
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Outrageous budgetary allocations: raising early red flag?
Barely two months after the submission of 2016 budget (“budget of change”) by the presidency; the National Assembly raised an alarm on suspected frivolous allocations in the budget document. Precisely, the appropriation bill was riddled with repetitions of items as well as bizarre and inflated provisions that would ordinarily question the FG’s true priorities. As examples, the size of the VP’s office’ supposed allocation for books and the ‘rent’ of N30 million at a purpose-built State House stand out. The president swiftly ordered an investigation with a view to righting the irregularities and bringing those responsible to book—the DG of the Budget Office and 26 others were subsequently relieved of their duties. Despite the implicit suggestion of malice, the irregularities still undermine the FG’s much publicized dedication to proper scrutiny and observance of due process. This point assumes some more importance when one recalls that, only a month earlier, the entire budget document was reportedly misplaced/substituted budget. Hence, the latest incident does little to boost public confidence in the FG’s capacity to plug loopholes, let alone enhance governance processes. One further implication is the almost inevitable additional delay to eventual passage of the appropriation bill.
Considering the influence capex was meant to have in resetting the economy on the path of growth, the implications of further delay are clearly negative. Last night’s release of the lowest GDP numbers in the new series (Q4 15: +2.1% YoY) only serves to underscore the seriousness of the issue. For us, given we had clearly signalled our GDP forecasts here “particularly sensitive to successful transmission of government stimulus to the economy”, we think that a downward revision of our expectations seems inevitable even before any 2016 numbers are released.
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Blip naira gains bow to fundamental realities
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Currency challenges were at the center of economic discuss over February 2016. Although the naira remained stable at the interbank market, paucity of greenback at the parallel markets worsened over February with the naira reaching unprecedented lows of N385/$ in mid-February. The pressures continue to reflect CBN’s stoppage of dollar sales to money changers as well as rumours of planned ban of FX sales for overseas school fees and medical bills which heightened speculative attacks on the naira, resulting in a ~15% plunge over the ensuing five day period after the rumours. In a surprise twist though, the naira retraced some of the losses a few days later, appreciating a significant 25% to N290 on February 24 from its historical lows. Given CBN’s stoppage of dollar sales to the parallel markets, the naira gains were attributed to autonomous dollar supply from foreign countries—with close West African neighbours and middle-eastern nations touted as possible sources. In particular, the President of the Association of Bureau De change Operators of Nigeria (ABCON), Aminu Gwadabe, noted that carry trade activities by residents of Dubai and other West African countries resulted in inflow of over $100 million into the parallel market on Friday, 19th of February 2016 alone igniting the naira gains. Importantly, since naira is freely traded across West African countries, we see significant potential for currency round tripping over the period. To buttress, we note that whilst there have always been possibilities of significant arbitrage gains from dollar round tripping from these countries to Nigeria, arbitrage spread (profits) expanded from N103.17 at the end of January to over N183.14 by mid-February. In our view, this extra inducement, which must have guaranteed sufficient returns net of any transaction cost, lends some credence to rumours of autonomous influx from West Africa in the period. However, rebound of domestic dollar demand subsequently offset these autonomous supplies, stoking renewed downward pressures on the USDNGN which closed February at N325/$ at parallel market. Going forward, we remain bearish on naira performance at the parallel markets in the near to medium term given still depressed economic fundamentals. In particular, foreign reserves are currently at over a decade low of $27.8 billion while outlook for oil revenues remain depressed despite current temporary retrace in oil prices. Importantly, the authorities’ lingering reluctance to devalue the naira should drive further market dislocation, retaining room for significant round tripping and arbitrage activities.
[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ width=”1/1″][vc_column_text]Figure 1: Historical interbank and parallel market USDNGN Rates[/vc_column_text][image_with_animation image_url=”7033″ alignment=”” animation=”Fade In”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ width=”1/1″][vc_column_text]FX and PMS scarcities re-ignite another round of price pressures[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that headline inflation rose 9.6% YoY in January—unchanged from December 2015 and missing our call for a pullback to 9.4% YoY. Disaggregating to sub-components, food inflation was flat at 10.6% YoY while core index climbed 10bps from the previous month to 8.8% YoY. For the former, decelerations in farm produce more than offset upswing in processed foods, owing to sufficient carry-over stocks from previous harvest. On the other hand, the uptick in processed food reflected FX pressures which is one leg of the tripod that supports our expectation for higher inflation in 2016.
However, the ease with which benign harvest subdued the impact of widening parallel market premiums over interbank USDNGN (December 2015: 32%, January 2016: 48%) appears to affirm our thinking that the influence of FX pressures on the CPI basket over the year would be somewhat muted, relative to the size of the black market premium or any potential devaluation. However, what is clear is that the ongoing technical rationing of the greenback as well as delayed FX allocation to even sectors already marked out as priority segments have further raised the cost of doing business in the country, with knock-on effect on domestic prices. In particular, the re-appearance of fuel scarcity across key cities over the second half of February points to extended pressures on core inflation and was also attributed to inadequate FX allocation to oil marketers.
These, in addition to the implementation of ~50% to 70% increase in electricity tariff at the start of February, should drive overall inflation higher. Thus, overlaid with expected pass-through impact of higher food transportation cost, we see overall headline rising 20bps northward to 9.8% YoY in our February estimate.
[/vc_column_text][image_with_animation image_url=”7034″ alignment=”” animation=”Fade In”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ width=”1/1″][vc_column_text]Subdued OMO issuance and oil price rally drive yield compression[/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]
After two consecutive months of increase, the yield curve contracted a mild 6bps MoM to 8.48% in February. Slight contraction in average yield over the period was partly underpinned by ~8% MoM increase in market liquidity to N499 billion following relatively tamer OMO issuance which reversed the upward yield movements at the lower end of the yield curve. To put the latter in context, we note that CBN’s OMO sales declined 27% MoM to ~N509billion in the period, stoking average T-bill yield contraction of 12bps to 4.07%, 6.54%, and 7.89% for the 91 day, 182 day and 364-day papers respectively. Similarly, in contrast to the 93bps MoM jump to 10.79% recorded in the preceding month, yields at the longer end of the naira curve remained flat over February. Interestingly, an ~18% acceleration in crude oil prices amidst expectations of an imminent OPEC output adjustment appears to have reversed the selling pressures on longer-dated treasuries, as observed in January. Overall, our expectation that OMO sales would be insufficient to drive a sustained spike in yields and FGN’s unwillingness to borrow at higher cost have clearly materialized. To buttress on the latter, we note that average cost of borrowing at the February bond auction narrowed 8bps MoM to 12.3% over the review period. Hence, with OMO sales expected to remain non-aggressive in line with CBN’s dovish posture and fiscal resistance to higher borrowing cost still rife, we expect yield contraction to subsist in the near term.
[/vc_column_text][image_with_animation image_url=”7035″ alignment=”” animation=”Fade In”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” bg_color=”#ccbfb3″ scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ width=”1/1″][vc_column_text]Copyright © 2016 Asset & Resource Management Company Limited (“ARM”).[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]
Managing your assets and protecting your property
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While a Will is a good method of estate planning, a more effective method is to create a trust alongside a Will. Trusts are becoming an increasingly popular way of managing assets and protecting property. Private trusts are especially beneficial in planning one’s estate as it makes provisions for individuals as beneficiaries. A trust is a relationship that arises when one person (the Settlor), transfers property to another person (the Trustee) to hold that property for the benefit of himself or others (the Beneficiaries). The legal instrument used for creating a trust is the Trust Deed.
Although a Will may successfully transfer assets to other people it does not come into effect till the maker of the Will dies. Where a person desires to transfer a part of his estate during his lifetime, a trust would be a good way to achieve this. A trust may come into effect before death, at death or afterwards depending on the terms of the trust.
A common objective of Will creators may be to leave property for successive generations; unfortunately the reality of this is different as there is no guarantee that the gifted assets would survive the next generation. By contrast, the life of a trust is dependent on the terms of the trust and in some jurisdictions may transcend a hundred years. A trust would usually have more than one set of beneficiaries, each set being a different generation.A trust can hold property, bank accounts, and other types of assets; a direct result of this is that the trust will not only have longevity but it will operate in the same manner as the settlor would have even after several generations. A trust is a guaranteed means of building wealth for future generations.
A person whose estate is being planned may wish to enjoy some benefits from his estate while he is still alive. Where this is the objective a living trust may be created. A trustee is obligated to invest the assets in a trust. The Settlor, according to the terms of the trust may enjoy the wealth created by the trust assets during his life time.
Beneficiaries of a trust need not go through probate which is a tedious and long process. The assets in a trust may be accessed immediately the trust becomes active. This is in contrast to Wills which must go through probate. The details of a private trust are confidential
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When do I write my Will? Learn how
There is no set or appropriate time to make a Will. Creating one has nothing to do with age (although most countries have put into place age restrictions on the making of Wills), wealth or state of health. Seemingly insignificant assets can be protected by Wills, trust or any other means of estate planning.
A Will is an instrument by which a person makes provision for the disposition of his property after his death. The loss of a loved one is a hard ordeal for most and the last thing anyone would want to do at that point is to engage in conflict over an estate. It is an effective means of minimising conflict and protecting one’s loved ones from dealing with bureaucracy at a time of sadness. A valid Will specifies how each property of the demised should be distributed and the testator’s wishes are often followed precisely.
As death is inevitable and in most cases unpredictable, it is necessary that anyone who owns assets make a Will. However, some life changing events make this even more necessary. Getting married, getting divorced and having kids are significant changes to one’s personal relationships. Writing one would reflect one’s intentions for these persons after death.
Some other events that make the writing or changing of an existing Will important are when a person acquires new assets, when a person has started a new business or when a previous Will is simply out of date.
A man who dies without a Will has lawyers as his heirs. The process of obtaining letters of administration is a tiresome one and requires the services of lawyers. These lawyers would need to be paid and these payments would be made out of the estate of the deceased person. Leaving it minimises costs and ensures that the bulk of one’s estate goes to one’s beneficiaries.
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Ensuring life does not throw us unpleasant surprises
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Ever been in a situation that seemed entirely impossible until it happened? I think most people have because life has a knack for being unpredictable. They say hindsight is 20/20; unfortunately hindsight or regret provides no opportunities to remedy decisions wrongfully made in the past. While we may not be able to accurately predict the future or change the past to favour the present we can put plans in place to ensure that life does not throw us unpleasant surprises and that we have little or no regrets if these surprises come our way. One way to achieve this is through estate planning, more specifically through writing a Will and creating a trust.
The thought of planning one’s estate is usually a scary one as it makes people painfully aware of their mortality.Whatever misgivings one may have, it is more practical than it is scary to plan one’s estate in detail than to leave one’s affairs to eventualities. Estate planning in reality has little to do with impending death and more to do with protecting one’s interest.
Estate planning is the process of preparing for the transfer of a person’s wealth and assets after his or her death or in the event of mental incapacity. This can be done at any time during one’s lifetime. One’s estate is comprised of everything one owns; this may include their home, other real estate, bank accounts, insurance, etc. Estate planning is not a process reserved for the affluent. Almost everyone owns an estate.The process of estate planning can be a complicated one, so it is best to consult an Estate Advisor, a lawyer and financial adviser when drawing up your estate plan and preparing for unpleasant surprises.
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Why You Should Plan For Tomorrow Today
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Imagine this…
Chijioke was very successful and had a nice family. Sadly, he passed on in a car accident. Chijioke died intestate (without a Will) leaving behind his wife and four kids.
Since he did not have a Will, his estate was taken over by his greedy siblings and relatives who never knew how hard Chijioke and his wife had worked to live a comfortable life, thereby leaving his wife and children in penury. The other assets not taken over by the relatives were taken by creditors and the Banks from which Chijoke had borrowed some money to expand his import business.
All this happened because he never planned for such uncertainties, like many of us. Being a young man, he just did not think it was the right time to make arrangements for the unseen future, so he did not plan for tomorrow.
This is not another Superstory. This story has become a classic and plays out day after day.
ARM Trustees is already assisting you to think and plan for tomorrow in advance by offering you its Retirement Savings Account (RSA) Will services. An “RSA” is an important component of any employee’s assets and an “RSA Will” describes how you would like the funds in your Retirement Savings Account to be distributed upon your demise.
As your trusted partner, we urge you to put the necessary Will in place today, clearly outlining the beneficiaries of your retirement benefits and other assets to ensure that your assets are distributed according to your wishes.
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ARM-Harith Infrastructure Fund
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ARM-Harith Infrastructure Fund Achieves First Close
LAGOS: ARM-Harith Infrastructure Investment Ltd (“ARMHIIL”), a Joint Venture between Asset & Resource Management Company Ltd (“ARM”) and Harith General Partners (Pty) Ltd (“Harith”) of South Africa, has announced first close of the indigenously developed and managed ARM-Harith Infrastructure Fund (“ARMHIF”).
A pioneering US$250 million closed-ended specialist PE Infrastructure Fund, ARMHIF is structured in line with international best practice and core investment focus is on transportation, Energy, and Utilities in West Africa, and primarily Nigeria. The Fund Management Team comprises multidisciplinary professionals with over 70 years combined experience in development, structuring, financing, and execution of infrastructure projects in Sub-Saharan Africa and other parts of the world.
Total commitments to the Fund are currently around US$91 million. ARM, the lead sponsor and main investor in ARMHIF, committed US$25 million to the Fund. Harith, the co-sponsor, together with investors from its pool, committed a matching US$25 million. The African Development Bank (“AfDB”), playing a key role as catalyst for investment by the limited partners in the Fund, committed US$20 million. Nigerian Pension Funds, Chevron CPFA, Progress Trust CPFA, and Total E&P CPFA, also made commitments to the Fund, which we understand are the first infrastructure investments made by Nigerian Pension Funds via the private equity route. The Fund also raised commitments from commercial investors, HNIs, and the Fund Management Team.
ARMHIF has already subscribed for an equity stake in its first project investment, the pioneering Azura-Edo IPP, a US$890 million 450MW gas-fired open cycle power generation plant being developed on the outskirts of Benin City in Edo State, Nigeria. The project is the first of a new wave of project financed greenfield IPPs being developed in Nigeria. Phase 1 of the plant is targeted to come on stream in 2017, and forecast to create over 1,000 jobs during construction and operation.
“ARMHIF is the first in a series of Infrastructure Funds that we plan to raise over time, providing much needed long term equity capital for funding infrastructure in Nigeria and West Africa. We see viable investment opportunities in our pipeline, and believe good returns can be generated through our selective and skilful deployment of capital to infrastructure projects. ARMHIF is a new and investible infrastructure product for Sub-Saharan Africa, and is suitable for local and international investors alike. Having a AAA-rated international organization like the AfDB in our investor group, and Nigerian Pension Funds gaining infrastructure exposure for the first time via our Fund, is a solid start”, said Opuiyo Oforiokuma, Managing Director/CEO of ARMHIIL.
Tshepo Mahloele, CEO of Harith General Partners said that he is proud to be associated with ARM in its mission to contribute to the broader development of West Africa and Nigeria in particular. “The first close of ARMHIF is a critical milestone that takes us closer to realizing our objective of investing in infrastructure assets and ensuring that our communities have improved access to services. ARMIF’s investments will be long term in nature and investors will be offered stable yet attractive returns within a well-managed low-risk portfolio. Infrastructure investment is a good catalyst for economic stimulus through the delivery of carefully chosen and structured projects with the potential to register positive social impact.”e AfDB in our investor group, and Nigerian Pension Funds gaining infrastructure exposure for the first time via our Fund, is a solid start”, said Opuiyo Oforiokuma, Managing Director/CEO of ARMHIIL.
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ARM Young Talent (Internship) Program
The ARM Young Talent Programme (AYTP) is designed to provide exemplary university students with the opportunity to develop an early career at ARM through exposure to meaningful assignments that offer opportunities to gain real-world experience .
It is our chosen way to influence the development of talent in our environment. The AYTP offers our interns good learning opportunities, via practical work experience prior to entry into the labour market or progression to further ones career. The AYTP allows ARM tackle some of the challenges relating to capacity building, by facilitating the creation and provision of possible employment opportunities for interns upon obtaining their University degree and completion of their internship programme with the firm. In addition to working with the best people in the industry, our interns are provided with comprehensive training in an environment which is geared towards learning, and are exposed to real life business projects, transactions and company initiatives.
At the end of the programme, our interns are also required to write a report and give a presentation on a project topic in order to assess their suitability. In addition to developing technical skills and experience, the AYTP provides interns the opportunity to develop interpersonal skills through networking with other interns, current employees and clients.
This is a great chance to get your career started at a leading investment management firm and gain some valuable work experience. Successful participation in our programs could invariably lead to full-time professional employment with the firm or an exclusive scholarship offer to study for a Post-graduate degree under our “Robert Akinjewe Scholarship Fund” Career Fulfilment.
Application Requirements:
- Be a university undergraduate
- Have completed at least two years of their degree
- Be on track for a First class or 2:1 degree (Second Class Upper) degree or equivalent
- Be available to resume physically in June 2025, if successful
Desired Skills and Experience
We seek high quality students from all disciplines that possess:
- great communication skills (both written and oral), analytical and logical reasoning skills
- strong interpersonal and relationship building skills
and are:
- collaborative
- able to think creatively and to be innovative
- able to work in a fast-paced challenging environment
Save Without Loss
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Save Without Loss with Direct Debit: The Story of Lola
“My name is Lola, and this is the story of my journey to financial freedom.
For a long time, I took part in the contributory scheme in my office commonly referred to as “ajo”. I joined in at every opportunity. But my colleague, Becky refused to participate. I wondered why. After a while, I put it down to her thinking she was too good for us.
Then something happened – the people who collected the first and second rounds of contributions for our umpteenth cycle were fired! We all panicked. Not for them or how they would manage themselves and their families, but for those of us who had contributed and had not collected our lump sums. My colleagues who had been dismissed were counting on their salaries to pay us back.
You see, I contributed N100,000 a month during our usual contributory cycle. This incident threw my finances into turmoil. I had school fees due the next month. I told Becky what happened. It was at this point she told me about the Mutual Fund account she operated with ARM and the Direct Debit mandate she was running.
I understood the concept of Mutual Funds but I did not understand what she meant by a Direct Debit.”
What is a Direct Debit?
A direct debit is an instruction from you to your bank authorizing the bank to pay fixed amounts at specific intervals (monthly, quarterly, annually etc) to a merchant or an institution.
A direct debit could be a systematic and strategic way to save towards various objectives i.e. the birth of a child, payment of school fees, acquisition of an asset, growing capital for a business, et.c. The list is endless!
An ARM Mutual Funds Direct Debit:
- Encourages disciple and promotes personal financial planning
A direct debit helps you organize your finances such that you know what you are saving/investing before you start spending your income.
- Saves you time
Modern life is hectic – and you may not remember to make that contribution into your mutual fund account every month but direct debit takes care of that. Once your mandate is given to your Bank, so you do not need to lift a finger.
- Is flexibile
A direct debit allows the payment amount and frequency to be varied (at anytime), keeping you in control.
“I should have signed up for a mutual fund years ago. My funds would have been safe and there would have also been the opportunity to earn returns on my contributions instead of contributing my monies to a plan that had no opportunity for capital appreciation. Do not wait years to start a mutual fund and a direct debit like I did. Act now, and sign up for a direct debit if you already have a mutual fund, or open a mutual fund account today with a direct debit instruction.”
Contact us for advice at ARM Engage on 0700CALLARM (07002255276), send us a mail at [email protected], visit our website at www.investmentcenter.com or join the conversation on facebook and twitter (armengage).
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Why ARM Trustees: our Unique Value
ARM Trustees Limited (ARMT) proffers advice to clients on strategies for effective estate planning. Our main strategy is geared towards the preservation and enhancement of wealth for our clients and future generations. We adopt professional investment advice from competent independent financial advisers inclusive of our parent company ARM. Our Trust services include the drafting of initial and ancillary documentation to establish and administer trusts, distribution of trust assets and the termination of trusts. Our executorship service includes making preparation of Wills & Testaments, applications for probate, administration of Estates, distribution and winding up of Estates. We occupy a distinct niche market in the provision of private trust services in Nigeria.