Day: August 1, 2018

Nigerian Inflation: Approaching an Inflection point

Executive Summary 

In our H1 18 strategy report, we projected a drop-in headline inflation, anchored on the blend of soft domestic food prices and base-effects (H1 17) with the scale of moderation trimmed by higher transport inflation – hinged on rising crude oil prices. Indeed, our view of a downturn in consumer prices panned out with headline inflation declining by 285bps over H1 18 to average 13.02% year-on-year (YoY).

However, the scale of moderation was steeper than what we had envisaged, as NNPC stepped up its fuel imports over the period to support market supply and price – at N145/litre. Consequently, core inflation dipped 101bps to average 11.17% YoY over H2 17 while food inflation declined markedly by 451bps over the review period to 15.63% YoY with the sharp decrease resulting from the impact of favorable base effect and increased market supplies.

In terms of our outlook over the second half of the year, we considered currency and liquidity concerns over the rest of the year. On the currency front, we believe increased interventions from the CBN will keep the Naira stable in H2 18. With regard to liquidity, particularly from the implementation of the approved 2018 budget (N9.12 trillion) and, most importantly, spending against the 2019 elections, we do not envisage any price pressure, taking a cue from precedents which shows muted pressures over H2 18 as well as in the months leading up to elections.

Overall, our analysis suggests that while base effects although minimal would drive lower CPI, structural bottlenecks from elevated transportation costs should limit scale of moderation in inflation. Summing up developments across both core and food inflation sub-components, we project mean headline inflation to hover around 12.04% YoY over 2018 (2017: 16.55%).

Headline inflation nose-dives over H1 2018, hits 28-month low

In our H1 18 strategy report, we projected a drop-in headline inflation with downside curtailed by elevated transport inflation. Precisely, our expectation of softer inflation was anchored on the blend of soft domestic food prices and base-effects (H1 17) with the scale of moderation trimmed by higher transport inflation, hinged on higher crude oil prices.

Indeed, our view of a downturn in consumer prices panned out with headline inflation declining by 285bps over H1 18 to average 13.02% year-on-year (YoY). However, the scale of moderation was steeper than what we had envisaged. To be precise, due to rising crude oil prices, we had expected independent marketers’ inability to import fuel to give rise to episodes of fuel scarcity which would pressure PMS price.

However, in a bid to boost supply, NNPC stepped up its fuel imports over the period thus supporting price at regulated level of N145/litre. Consequently, core inflation dipped 101bps to average 11.17% YoY over H2 17 with the decline stemming from the HWEGF1, education and clothing divisions. In the review period, food inflation declined markedly by 451bps to 15.63% YoY with the sharp decrease resulting from the impact of favorable base effect and increased market supplies.

 

VIEW FULL REPORT HERE

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ECONOMIC UPDATE: Currency – The Battle for Naira Stability

In our H1 18 Nigeria Strategy Report, we projected a blow in FX outflows that will impulse the CBN to step up its intervention across FX markets. Our projection was based on the confluence of policy normalization in developed markets, flight to safety across EMs, lower domestic interest rate environment, and political risk in the domestic clime. True to our prognosis, average monthly FX outflows rose 15.4% over H1 2018 to $3.6 billion (forecast; $3.3 billion), which prompted an accelerated pace of intervention by the CBN.

For context, CBN sales expanded at the IEW1 and interbank markets over H1 18 – IEW (+122% to $1.96 billion), BDC (+83% to $2.89 billion) and Interbank sales (+56% to $11.4 billion) to drive overall intervention to $16.3 billion (+66.5%). Consequently, the NAFEX2 and BDC rates remained relatively stable over H1 18, closing the period at N360.5/$1 and N362.3/$1 accordingly.

Coalescing our adjusted CBN outflows and inflows, we estimate monthly average reserve drawdown of $310 million (average accretion of $1.3 billion in H1 18) which summed up to $1.9 billion over H2 18 (vs. $8.0 billion accretion in H1 18) – notwithstanding Eurobond issuance – which should dwarf any significant accretion in the foreign reserve to $45.7 billion. Consequently, we expect the apex bank to put its full ammunition to use to keep the Naira at current bands, which would maintain stability in the short term to keep the interbank at N361/$ for the rest of 2018.

Further down, the distortion of the free interplay of demand and supply at the IEW with the lag expected from CBN intervention – amidst pressure at other windows as in May 18 – would drive short-term volatility in rates and an eventual adjustment to our fundamental driven purchasing power parity estimate of between N391.17/$ to N402.48/$ (7-10% down-leg from current NAFEX rate of N361.00/$ at the end of June 2018).

CBN fires up as Hot Money lose steam 

In our H1 18 Nigeria Strategy Report, we projected a blow in FX outflows that will impulse the CBN to step up its intervention across FX markets. Our projection was based on the confluence of policy normalisation in developed markets, flight to safety across EMs, lower domestic interest rate environment, and political risk in the domestic clime. True to our prognosis, average monthly FX outflows rose 15.4% over H1 2018 to $3.6 billion (forecast; $3.3 billion), which prompted an accelerated pace of intervention by the CBN.

For context, CBN sales expanded at the IEW3 and interbank markets over H1 18 – IEW (+122% to $1.96 billion), BDC (+83% to $2.89 billion) and Interbank sales (+56% to $11.4 billion) to drive overall intervention to $16.3 billion (+66.5%). That said, while we had expected the accelerated sales to drive a drawdown in external reserve, the combination of strong foreign flows in the first quarter, which provided room for the CBN to shore up its reserve4, combined with Eurobond issuance earlier in February, and improved oil inflows (+20.6% to $9.0 billion) triggered robust net flows with $7.4 billion accretion striding the FX reserve to $47.8 billion at the end of H1 18. Consequently, the NAFEX5 and BDC rates remained relatively stable over H1 18, closing the period at N360.5/$1 and N362.3/$1 accordingly.

 

VIEW FULL REPORT HERE

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Source: Articles